Blog Posts Across Foodserviceclub

Emerging Economies, Emerging Exports

US agricultural exports for the most part have grown considerably in recent years. The deflated US dollar has opened some doors and the world so far is greeting us with a friendly; “more please.” In June, nearly half of the 17 million pound increase in US butter exports was to countrie… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on August 14, 2008 at 2:53pm — No Comments

Essential Banquet Planning

How Much Food Should We Prepare? Since I work with caterers on recipe costing and menu planning models, I see many different approaches to forecasting food production. Most chefs like to vary the portion sizes based on the number of menu items selected. There are plenty of theories on consumption profiles. For example, I know one client who estimates the adult female portion equals 70% of the adult male portion. I have witnessed above average food consumption by heavy construction worke… Continue

Posted by Joe Dunbar on August 12, 2008 at 7:55pm — 3 Comments

Chicken Market Headwinds

The chart of the week is the Weekly Chicken-Feed Cost Ratio (an indicator of producer profitability) versus the Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast Market. You may have heard it said; “As the boneless breast market goes, chicken producer profitability goes.” The chart below supports this. As chicken breast prices have risen historically chicken producer margins have improved and vice versa. Its well documented that chicken producer profitability has struggled in recent months due mostly to the surg… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on August 8, 2008 at 10:01am — No Comments

Catering Tips For Recessionary Weddings

Marilyn Chapman generously shares her tips for wedding banquets in the down economy! The good news is that weddings are recession proof and couples are getting married in record numbers. The bad news is that current trends in weddings still reflect the downturn in the economy. Gone are the lavish weddings that many industry professionals now presume were fueled by Home Equity Loans and credit cards with low or nonexistent interest rates The reality is that weddings are now smaller and s… Continue

Posted by Joe Dunbar on August 7, 2008 at 7:14pm — 1 Comment

Wait staff does NOT spit in customers food!!

Regardless of what the thought is, Wait staff by and large do NOT spit in peoples meals no matter the case. I do know the fear is felt far and wide amongs customers who are in the order/greet process with the wait staff, but it is way overblown. It's amazing to me, that when I dine out with the un-initiated they almost always think that and use that thought not to complain or get what they want. Wrong!!!!!!!!! I should know. I had been a professional waiter, manager, and owner from the low end… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on August 7, 2008 at 9:00am — 2 Comments

Perception and reality are converging for the masses. Some Current Opinion.

New business filings for restaurants have not dropped at all. The number seems to be consistently producing (after a vetting process) more 1000 new operations that open weekly or change hands. The profile of the foodservice operation hasn't really changed much in the past 2 years. The trend has been decidedly QSR. We have and are continuing to state that the financial atmosphere is still remaining a tight proposition for the single unit operator or the chain operator. If operators are doing the… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on August 1, 2008 at 3:00pm — No Comments

Eventful Dairy Market Week

The chart of the week is monthly milk cow slaughter. June milk cow slaughter was slightly larger than a year ago but was basically even with the June prior 5 year average. Now one may think when they see this chart that the data is relatively uneventful. But uneventful data can be as newsworthy as sharp volatile swings sometimes. How so? Well the trade has been anticipating a reduction in the milk cow herd for some time now leading to slower milk production growth and tighter milk supplies. Howe… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on August 1, 2008 at 11:47am — 2 Comments

Make Room For Special Events

Eliminating the uncertainty of a covers forecast is helpful for everyone in restaurant management. Restaurants with a line around the block estimate with confidence their cover count on a busy night. They are less likely to over staff or miss their production requirements. The long line insures they will hit the maximum cover count. On the other hand, operators with spotty dining room counts and no line wrapped around the building experience major forecast errors. Management typically over staf… Continue

Posted by Joe Dunbar on July 29, 2008 at 12:49am — No Comments

FREE Front Page Real Estate on Foodserviceclub, This is an open site.

Do you want exposure to the masses? If you have an RSS feed to your world and you are willing to contribute to the site weekly, we can provide you front page status just like you currently see. Please send me an email at keith@foodservicereport.com to discuss further involvement. Thank you! Keith Continue

Posted by keith gellman on July 25, 2008 at 2:30pm — No Comments

Food Inflation...No Small Potatoes

This may be the first time I spend my weekly blog writing about a produce item but my point is broader as hopefully you will see. This week the discussion involves potatoes. The USDA recently published their estimate for 2008 Idaho fall potato acreage which is 300,000. Sounds like a lot of acreage going to one product in one state but as we look further plantings are 14% or 50,000 acres less than a year ago. As a matter of fact, Idaho potato acreage this year is the lowest since 1980. About 90%… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on July 24, 2008 at 7:30pm — 2 Comments

Corn still dancing with ethanol?

It’s a fear for just about every guy; you take your date to the dance and she leaves with somebody else. Do you think ethanol has been feeling a little slighted lately? The chart below is a rough estimate of ethanol producer margins. The chart illustrates two major particulars regarding the ethanol industry. First, ethanol producer margins have waned from a year ago which has been well documented. Second, when the corn markets had their latest run up it became very difficult if not impossible fo… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on July 17, 2008 at 2:11pm — 1 Comment

Sharing Expertise In A Down Economy

Despite declining volume, I took a shot and offered a long time client help this spring with no hope of being paid. We worked out an arrangement. I offered my services as required to lower his cost of goods sold. We attacked the issue and were successful. His COGS dropped 2.5%. During the time of the service, I never billed his company. I kept track of my hours. Recently, I sent him a bill. While the costs were coming down, he paid all the old invoices. At this time, I have roughly the same ba… Continue

Posted by Joe Dunbar on July 12, 2008 at 1:06pm — 2 Comments

Current Prognosis, the media is no help.

Today's climate has not changed much in the past 3 months. We see many operational challenges as daily volume is sliding. The media has not helped. In one swipe along with the CDC an entire industry of tomatoes had been brought to the brink. Now it's spilling over into multiple vegetable types. Beware the food police! As a personal viewer of business news, recent consumption has included un-ending quips about people eating out less and using that as a way to trim expenses. It can't get much wor… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on July 10, 2008 at 7:48pm — 2 Comments

Beef Prices

As I wrote just over a month ago, the beef markets typically depreciate after the Memorial Day Holiday. And if you are a regular reader you would probably tell me that you are still waiting for the beef markets to decline. My reply would be, “So am I.” The beef markets have appreciated considerably since mid June climbing to their highest price levels in some time. Pretty impressive given the “challenged US economy” and $4.00 gasoline. Why are beef prices so high? Good question and I don’t think… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on July 10, 2008 at 2:57pm — 2 Comments

Checkout Savory Cities Website

New York San Francisco Chicago Los Angeles Seattle Continue

Posted by Joe Dunbar on July 10, 2008 at 1:30am — No Comments

Does Anyone Have News To Share?

I just added 6 RSS feeds from our members. If I missed anyone who would like their website or blog feed to hit the main page, let me know and I'll add your feed. Continue

Posted by Joe Dunbar on July 9, 2008 at 2:27am — No Comments

Chicken Supplies

The chart of the week is 6 week moving average for broiler egg sets. First we remember that a broiler (chicken) egg is set roughly 10 weeks before coming to slaughter for the chicken meat supply. As has been well documented, inflated feed costs have caused chicken supplier margins to wane in turn propelling chicken producers to cut future chicken output plans. It’s been roughly 3 months since broiler egg sets have begun trending below a year ago which should have caused chicken output gains to a… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on July 3, 2008 at 1:49pm — No Comments

foodserviceclub wants provocative conversation, and

Hi All, Foodserviceclub has way too many sales pitches. In the future, if you are just selling a product or service and are not adding to the community other than selling, your posts will be removed. We created this site for the end user who needs more education on the broad sense, not the sell side. So, please leave your intentions on what you are selling in your profile, not as a conversation. It's our thought that conversations are for provoking thought and interaction only. Otherwise we don… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on June 26, 2008 at 6:49am — No Comments

The manager visited each and every table....

Does that make sense? 100% table visitation. I don't think so, but I do think the manager should" see" 100% of the tables to ensure all is going well. You certainly can't cook all the food or bail out every wait person either. I think a succesful manager enables staffs to help themselves. Continue

Posted by keith gellman on June 17, 2008 at 10:24am — 1 Comment

We're About ROI In Advertising For Independent Chains

Hey Folks, Wanted to first thank Keith for putting together a great blog site for sharing information on the foodservice business and introduce my company to everyone. We're specialists in advertising, marketing and PR for independent restaurant chains. Since 1992 we've been the agency for Pal's Sudden Service, a 21-unit burger chain in TN and VA. Pal's beats McDonald's and all other competitors in Average Unit Volume and Profitability because of our consistent focus on delivering ROI for them.… Continue

Posted by Tony Treadway on June 16, 2008 at 8:06am — 1 Comment

I walked into a fondue restaurant the other day (a famous one)

With my wife and the hostess said hi guys, how are you? (if we're lucky, we get out once a quarter-with 2 babies at home). Still romantic after that question from the hostess? NO. Continue

Posted by keith gellman on June 16, 2008 at 7:06am — No Comments

Current thoughts on the state of the industry

Restaurants with $10 meals or more per person are having some trouble attracting customers. $15-$25 averages are having very challenging times keeping their restaurants filled during the weekdays. $8 is the new $6. Fast food and quick service meal averages of $5-$6 and less are dominating the landscape for the everyday meal. Bagels, Pizza, Coffee, Mexican, Wraps and all things QSR are staying above water or improving their comparative sales. There are some bright spots in the remainder of… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on June 14, 2008 at 12:47pm — No Comments

Some Grain Market Perspective

Before I take my turn and dive into the grain markets I would suggest that some perspective is needed first. Because of the recent inclement weather in the Midwest, lives have been lost, families have been displaced and damage to people’s livelihood has occurred. I speak to that first because it is most important and we should all keep that in mind when becoming frustrated over the current crop and market conditions. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that people will remember this crop year fo… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on June 12, 2008 at 5:00pm — 2 Comments

Beef Buying Opportunity Knocking?

The chart of the week is the weekly USDA choice boxed beef cutout which is an index of choice beef prices. The choice boxed beef cutout has hovered at relatively inflated levels for roughly 8 weeks after trading at historically low levels earlier this year. As noted in the Weekly Commodity Report, the USDA choice boxed beef cutout is anticipated to depreciate during the next few months. Why? Well weekly beef production typically rises into the deep spring remaining relatively strong well into th… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on June 5, 2008 at 1:07pm — No Comments

Sow Slaughter and the Pork Markets

The chart of the week is US weekly sow slaughter. As reported in the latest issue of the Weekly Commodity Report, the percentage of sows slaughtered during April compared to total hog slaughter was the largest in 9 months which indicates that swine breeding herd liquidation likely acceler… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on May 30, 2008 at 3:29pm — No Comments

Crude Awakenings

The chart of the week is daily world crude oil output versus demand. This is a demand story. As the chart depicts below, crude oil production and demand have trended very close to each other for the last eleven years. Four of the last eleven years demand has outpaced production and it just so happens that two of those years were 2006 and 2007. From 1997 to 2002, daily crude oil demand rose by 5%. From 2002 to 2007 demand grew a whopping 13%. (Here’s where the data gets really interesting.) Deman… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on May 22, 2008 at 2:00pm — No Comments

The NRA is now history for 2008. Good thing say some.

Some of my random perspectives from the NRA: We exhibit there and walk the floor (all of it-at least once). As usual the city rolled out the red carpet with hospitality and friendliness. Traffic,on the floor although I don't have statistics from the NRA seemed way down. Many vendors felt the show was down 15%-25% or more in floor traffic. We'll have to wait for the actual figures released from the NRA. As for the type of visitor, there seem to be less local Chicago folks than normal (we belie… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on May 21, 2008 at 2:59pm — No Comments

The Protein Tipping Point (Part 2)

The chart of the week is monthly US beef imports. As one can tell below, US beef imports during the first quarter were historically small. As a matter of fact, they were a whopping 17% less than last year and the lowest for the time period since 1999. And why is this important you ask? We’ll a notable portion of the beef imported into the US is lean trimmings which are mostly used to mix for hamburger meat. Currently, the imported 90% and 95% beef trimming markets are at record highs. Domestic 8… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on May 15, 2008 at 11:43am — No Comments

MICROS at NRA Show: May 17 - 20

Hello all. MICROS will be located in booth 4200. If you would like to schedule an appointment with us please feel free to contact me. Continue

Posted by CraigS on May 13, 2008 at 1:15pm — No Comments

The NRA is next week, May 17-20th

We will be at booth #3336. Stop by and say hello. Considering the business climate today, the turnout should be interesting See you in Chicago! Continue

Posted by keith gellman on May 9, 2008 at 12:33pm — No Comments

The Protein Tipping Point

The chart of the week is US weekly sow slaughter. As I shared last week, broiler (chicken) egg sets have been in a decline during the past month and have fallen appreciably below year ago levels as chicken producers attempt to ration supplies in order to pressure chicken prices upward to account for the increase in feed costs. And as also as I shared last week, the chicken industry was not the only trade that was beginning to adjust production level plans. Hog producer margins, like the chicken… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on May 8, 2008 at 2:39pm — No Comments

Protein Supplies and Feed Costs

The chart of the week is broiler egg sets which are a solid indicator of forthcoming chicken production plans. It’s the same chart forwarded a few weeks ago but an update is certainly needed. Why? I’ll get to that in a minute. But first we remember that broiler (chicken) eggs are set roughly 10 weeks before being sent to slaughter. So broiler egg sets are a good marker of forthcoming chicken production levels. Now the answer to your question why. Well as you can tell, the 6 week moving average f… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on May 1, 2008 at 3:08pm — No Comments

Getting your fair share of the rebate bucks. An important discussion.

Are you going to get your fair share of the more than $100 billion in rebate dollars being issued now? What should we be doing to maximize the benefit? Continue

Posted by keith gellman on April 28, 2008 at 10:23am — 2 Comments

Ordering at the counter. I went up to the sign and waited to be acknowledged. After two minutes

I began to look around and saw the owner of this take-out place in another part of the store while two employees were focused on chatting with a delivery driver. Neither one acknowleged me, that I was there, and if I needed assistance. I felt uncomfortable waiting and waiting. And yet, I do this every other day or so. The same irritating ritual. It makes me wonder why the competition across the street is afraid to raise his prices .25 per item out of fear that his customers will walk away? My… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on April 25, 2008 at 11:32am — No Comments

Dairy Supplies

The chart of the week is the milk per cow gain compared to the 3 year average versus the milk-feed price ratio (or milk farmer margins in plain English). First we remember that the milk production equation is as follows; the number of milk cows x the amount of milk each cow produces = total milk production. As we already know, milk farmer margins have been waning during the past 6 months. This is reflected by the red line in the chart- the ratio of milk prices versus feed costs which historicall… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on April 23, 2008 at 3:00pm — No Comments

Hot Pepper Gingerbread Muffins with Orange-Maple Butter

Thanks Darwin Be…

Continue

Posted by Amber on April 21, 2008 at 2:46am — 1 Comment

Choice Beef Galore (a sequel)

The chart of the week is percentages of cattle grading choice and prime. As noted in recent issues of the Weekly Commodity Report, the percentage of cattle grading choice has trended well above prior year averages. During the past month, the percentage of cattle grading prime has climbed as well. With the increase in the percentage of cattle grading at premium levels we have experienced a notable surge in premium beef output. Thus the USDA choice boxed beef cutout index (a general indicator of c… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on April 17, 2008 at 5:00pm — No Comments

Baking Notes : On Proof Boxes, Hints for newbie Baker

Proof boxes aren't necessary for a bakery, especially a small one, over time you learn to "feel" the doughs textures --- from mixer to bench, from bench to board, from board to oven. This is the unspoken seventh sense those "one" with the dough possess.

Like everything, baking is akin to Star Wars. "Just as the path… Continue

Posted by Amber on April 14, 2008 at 9:30pm — No Comments

New Post Teaser | Review - Morimoto : The New Art of Japanese Cooking

"This book showcases why Chef Morimoto is at the axis of a foodie empire, in this creative and intuitive take on Japanese cuisine. When I read this cookbook, I felt like the foodie version of Being John Malkovich ,… Continue

Posted by Amber on April 14, 2008 at 9:30pm — No Comments

Recipe Carnival : 24 Popular Recipes Revisited

These are some of the most visited recipes this blog has to offer:

Popular Recipes on Renaissance Culinaire (food blog)

Click on any of the links to read the original blog post.
…
Continue

Posted by Amber on April 14, 2008 at 3:09pm — No Comments

I went to the most outrageous and exotic beer presentation last week

It was held at the Heartland Brewery, located at the Empire State Building in Manhattan. There were more than 100 beers there and exotic foods. Belgium was the theme and the party was thrown by the Ale Street News. Special consideration to Jack Babin, publisher of the Ale Street News for putting on such a grand event. There were Belgian beers and craft beers from all over the world. In the NY market "craft beers" as they are called have taken the area by storm. You now see them in Super markets,… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on April 14, 2008 at 11:30am — No Comments

Chicken Production and Supply Expectations

It’s no secret that chicken producers have been struggling with profitability attributed mostly to inflated feed costs. When profits are down for chicken suppliers, like any business, they need to reduce input costs or increase output prices. And the easiest way for chicken suppliers to boost output prices is to decrease the available supply. The chart of the week is the 6 week moving average for broiler (chicken) egg sets. We remember that a broiler egg is set roughly 10 weeks before being sent… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on April 10, 2008 at 12:49pm — No Comments

Will the tight grain supply situation end anytime soon?

The chart of the week is major grain ending stock levels as a percent of use for the next few years which are solid indicators of forthcoming grain prices. We remember that the corn and soybean crop years run from September 1 through August 31 while the wheat crop year runs from June 1 through May 31. Ending stocks are what's left over at the end of the business day on the last day of the respective crop year. This week the USDA released their first farmer surveyed planting intention estimates f… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on April 3, 2008 at 12:30pm — 1 Comment

Worksheets and Costs Associated with Startup, plus FoodService Equipment and Supply Requirements

Worksheets and Costs Associated with Startup, plus FoodService Equipment and Supply Requirements These are a few of the Basic Steps that you should take when considering opening a Restaurant or Bar. First Design your Menu Determine Recipes, Food Costs, and Equipment Specifications. You do not want a 35# electric fryer if you sell a lot of fried food. You won't get enough production to cover a four seat restaurant, and the recovery time on the fryer will be much too long to get… Continue

Posted by Carl Muth on April 1, 2008 at 6:30pm — 2 Comments

Top Ten Fastest Growing Concepts (with under 50 units).

See the whole story and who made the list...... Continue

Posted by keith gellman on April 1, 2008 at 10:33am — No Comments

Top Expansion States for Multi-unit operators, 1st Quarter 2008

Heres you will see the top states with the most expansions in the first quarter of 2008. See the whole story including pull-outs by state. Continued. Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 31, 2008 at 9:55am — No Comments

Restaurant Incubator Index

The index reflects the change in the total number of units for our Restaurant Incubator tracking group. The group is designed to track the growth of small chains into large groups. Monthly integration is now possible and results are now reflected each calendar month which began in… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 28, 2008 at 10:07am — No Comments

Pork Supplies

The chart of the week is sow slaughter during the first two months of the year. First we remember a sow is an adult female pig and slaughter levels are an indication of what farmers might be planning with future pork output levels. Why? Because we need female pigs to produce pigs for slaug… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on March 28, 2008 at 8:44am — No Comments

Our economy and food commodity prices.

The chart of the week is the US dollar index. As the chart depicts below the value of the US dollar has fallen some 40% during the last 6 years. The depressed US dollar has as much to do with commodity market inflation as anything. First; a cheap dollar makes our products less expensive overseas which usually boosts exports. Just about every commodity has experienced export growth in recent months which lessens the domestic supply and leads to higher prices. Without the gain in exports, current… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on March 20, 2008 at 1:00pm — 2 Comments

Chef Driven Restaurants. Opinions please!

I think we all know the term pertaining to a restaurant where the Chef dominates as the center of attention. I would like to start a discussion on the clubs thoughts regarding this topic. Is this a good or bad thing? Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 18, 2008 at 1:30pm — 6 Comments

The state of the industry. Points of view

There is a slowdown amongst us. No doubt we are all feeling it as the volume and frequency of the out of home market has been shrinking. In our market research department where we call thousands of chains each trimester we have seen more than a couple of chains literally disappear with more than 20 units each in recent months. As for new opening units of chains, there has been a halt except for very, very few chains. New entrepreneurs don't stop trying though on the single owner/unit level. Th… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 17, 2008 at 9:00am — No Comments

The new forms and charts section

Lat week we began a group "forms" (on the home page). There you will be able to download usable forms for operations. Our intention is to have a warehouse of free managerial tools. I have put a couple there to use. Please feel free to add any well thought out forms to the group. Thanks! Keith Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 13, 2008 at 1:37pm — 3 Comments

Choice Beef Galore

The chart of the week is the percentages of cattle grading choice and prime. As noted in a recent issue of the Weekly Commodity Report, the percentage of cattle grading choice has trended notably above a year ago and prior year averages in 2008 which is surprising given the inflated feed costs. A larger percentage of cattle grading choice is bearish for choice beef prices as it causes a greater percentage of choice beef production and thus choice beef supplies. For example, US beef production th… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on March 13, 2008 at 1:07pm — No Comments

Future Milk Production and Dairy Supplies

The chart of the week is the monthly milk-feed price ratio published by the USDA. The milk-feed price ratio is a historical indicator of milk farmer profitability. Why is this important? Because if milk farmers are profitable they have a tendency to expand milk output leading to expanded dairy production which is usually bearish for dairy prices. However, when milk farmers are not profitable they have a tendency to contract milk output which can be bullish for dairy product prices. As the chart… Continue

Posted by David Maloni on March 6, 2008 at 1:41pm — No Comments

Should customers be called guys?

I had been a professional waiter in many places. I was lucky enough to have been hired by the Hyatt Regency in 1980 to work in the Esplanade restaurant as a waiter in fine dining. Beyond that period I worked in a variety of upscale restaurants during and after hospitality school. I am just going to jump in with my first topic: Topic 1) Customers are not "guys." Unless you work in a wings place, pizza or sub shop it is totally unacceptable to call a table of customers guys unless their are no… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 6, 2008 at 10:00am — 4 Comments

We'll be at the NY Restaurant Show and the NRA in Chicago. Are shows worth it?

We will be at booth #2448 during the NY restaurant show. We expect it to be rocking busy at the NY, March 9-11th show by Reed Expo, as it has been. There are expected to be around 650 exhibitors at the show, lots of new products and educational areas including the Ferdinand Metz forum. Stop by if you can and say hello. We'll be displaying some of our data there. This will be our 8th time we are going to have a booth at a restaurant show. I have walked hundreds of shows throughout the years and… Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 5, 2008 at 3:37pm — 6 Comments

A brand new social networking site to learn, grow and be part of

For lack of better words at this time, we are developing a site for industry people who want to develop and have a passion for the industry. You will see continual posts from industry staffers and professionals in the industry. Our goal is to provide the best relevant content while promoting a forum for all who join. Continue

Posted by keith gellman on March 3, 2008 at 9:00am — No Comments

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